COMMODITY PLASTIC RESINS: A DELPHI FORECAST FOR PERCENTAGE MARKET SHARES FOR THE YEARS 1980, 1985, 1990, 1995, AND 2000

PETER BERNARD VAN WINKLE, Pace University

Abstract

The purpose of this study was to forecast the market shares that the commodity plastic resins (e.g., low density polyethylene, high density polyethylene, polypropylene, polystyrene, and polyvinyl chloride) would have for the years 1980, 1985, 1990, and 2000. The means used to make the forecast was the Delphi method; therefore, the input information was generated by a group of plastic industry experts and represents a concensus opinion.^ The need for the study arises because of the low energy requirements of production of plastic composited goods as compared to goods manufactured of other materials. This low energy demand requirement for goods made from plastic is the basis for demand forecasts that call for commodity plastic resin production in excess of 225 billion pounds by the year 2000. Actual demand from year to year and decade to decade will vary with the ups and downs of the business cycle, but is is clear that a very large investment must be made in commodity resin manufacturing facilities if the higher levels of demand are to be satisfied at reasonable material costs.^ This study looks at market shares as a useful means of comparing the market relationships among the commodity resins. Shares can be converted easily to production capacity requirements both existing and needed to meet future demand.^ Twenty five experts from the commodity plastic resin industry participated in making the Delphi forecast. All of these experts are employed by plastic resin manufacturing companies that belong to The Society of the Plastic Industry Inc., the major plastic industry trade organization.^ The study includes 62 tables that show 1976 production capacities and those required to meet projected demand both in pounds and dollars. Also shown by the same tables are the statistical comparisons of the two intermediate Delphi forecasts that show the gathering concensus of the experts. There are also eight exhibits and six graphs that support the findings.^ The result of the study is a Delphi forecast for commodity resins that covers the period of 1980, 1985, 1990, 1995 and the year 2000.^ ^

Subject Area

Business Administration, Marketing

Recommended Citation

PETER BERNARD VAN WINKLE, "COMMODITY PLASTIC RESINS: A DELPHI FORECAST FOR PERCENTAGE MARKET SHARES FOR THE YEARS 1980, 1985, 1990, 1995, AND 2000" (January 1, 1981). ETD Collection for Pace University. Paper AAI8128579.
http://digitalcommons.pace.edu/dissertations/AAI8128579

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