FORECASTING THE DOMESTIC DEMAND FOR SELECTED COMMODITY CHEMICALS

JAMES ROBERT RETTER, Pace University

Abstract

This study develops by application a detailed and specific procedure for comprehensively forecasting the U.S. demand for selected commodity chemicals.^ The application phase of the study is a five-year forecast of the domestic demand for two example commodity chemicals, Phenol and Acetone. The five forecast years are 1983 thru 1987.^ General forecasting methods and their applicability for the study are discussed.^ Considerable background information on Phenol and Acetone is provided. This includes a discussion of the methods that have been used for forecasting Acetone and Phenol demand. The past demand forecasts that have been made for these chemicals are compared with the actuals that occurred.^ This study shows that the use of a comprehensive forecasting procedure results in substantially lower demand forecasts that those resulting from the current forecasting activities of the chemical industry.^ The fourteen-step domestic demand forecasting procedure that was developed in the study is described in detail. The procedure is recommended for forecasting the domestic demand of other commodity chemicals and for the worldwide demand for the two example products.^ Briefly, the general procedure for doing the comprehensive forecast is to develop a time series forecast, followed by a qualitative forecast, and then an econometric forecast. Judgement is used throughout the forecasting procedure with a final judgemental forecast as the conclusion to the comprehensive forecasting procedure.^ In addition to the forecasts of Phenol and Acetone demand; the background data on these products; and the forecasting procedure that was developed; the dissertation also includes detailed econometric models for use in forecasting the domestic demand for Phenol and Acetone.^ Computer programs were used extensively for both the time series forecasts and the econometric models. The software that was used is described in detail as well as the statistical criteria for deciding on which data to use. ^

Subject Area

Business Administration, General

Recommended Citation

JAMES ROBERT RETTER, "FORECASTING THE DOMESTIC DEMAND FOR SELECTED COMMODITY CHEMICALS" (January 1, 1984). ETD Collection for Pace University. Paper AAI8416973.
http://digitalcommons.pace.edu/dissertations/AAI8416973

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